For example, if the market topsout at PM oneaftemoon, we canapply the simple Fibonacci sequenceof numbers, in terrnsof hours. That sequencebeing 1,3,5,8, 13,21,34,55, etc. It is a sequenceof numberswhereeachnumber is addedto the previous number to get thenext. So 1and2 afe addedtogether to get 3, 3 and 2 afe addedtogetherto get 5, 5 and 3 afe addedtogetherto get 8, 8 and5 afe addedtogether to get 13,etc. If we takethesenumbersandapply them in terrnsof hours, what usually happensis if themarket toppedout at PM, we would have a decline that would last maybe 3 hrs, 5 hrs, 8 hrs, 13hrs or 21 hrs downward.
Within thosedownward time periods we would seeour little wavesdeveloping and could count our little stair stepsandpatternsof thosewaves. The longer the advance,the more likely that the correction would be a little bit longer than with shorteradvances. What happensis that the vast majority of market movementsusually consistsof hourly patternsof 8 hours, 13hoursor 21 hoursand occasionally a long movement will go 21 hours, 34 hrs or 55 hours. But for most day to day markets,8 hours, 13hours and 21 hours afe the keys.
If we hadan advancethat went approximately 21 hours andthentopped out, it would be foolish to expecta low at the next hour or even the secondhour. We would probably needacorrection of 5 hours,8 hours or 13hours. If the market went down 5 hours and it looked like it startedto rally, we may very well go long on the 5th hour, using theprice level of the5th hour down from thetop asour stopout point. On the other hand, if it failed thereand went down for a6th hour, the oddswould be very good that the trend would continue on down at leastuntil the 8th hour,the next number in sequence,or if it didn't stop at the 8th hour, the 13th hour.
Now,far thesehourly turnsto becomeevenmorereliablein ourwork, weshouldobserve aseriesof highsandlowsaverthelastseveralweeks. If wefind thatseveraldaysagoatPM themarket hadabottom,wemaywantto noteaverthenextfour or rive weekstheseFibonaccihours,counting out 13,21,34,55,89, andput alittle "tick" markonourpaper,makingahorizontalline of these : "tick" marks.
Wewoulddothisin sequence with alIof ourhighsandlowsof significantmoves. Wewouldfind thatalIthese highs andlowshaveacommondenominator comingin Fibonaccitimeperiodsrightaboutnow. Thisimmediatelygetsourattentionthatthereisasignificantcyclecomingduewithin anhourortwo. Duringthishouror two wewanttopayverycloseattentiontoourhourlychart,to seeif it istrending downor if it is trendingupandif wehave8,9, lO, 12or morestairsteppatterns up. If indeed,it has alreadyhad12or 13upwardstairstep patterns, thenweafenearingsomekind of probabletopreversalin trend. With alItheseFibonaccihourscomingout,it wouldappear with almostcertainty,thatthe marketisgoingtotopoutandchange direction,andwecananticipatethattopandbuysomevery cheap putoptions.
ActualIy,evenin guessing, with aclosestoplossbased onanumberofhoursratherthanapointcount, if themarketcontinuedtogothroughourFibonaccitimecycleperiod,andtherewasstilI nochange, , thensomething wouldbewrongandwewouldcloseoutourposition. Buttheoddswouldbevery , good that the market would indeed tUffi during one of these time periods. YouwilI find aswestarttouseourmathematical setof tools,ourarsenal of countingwaves,counting stairssteps, usingFibonaccinumbers, usingproportionate partsof theimpulsewavesidentifiedonour , hourlycharts,wegetintohighly probablescenarios of whatthedirectionis,howlongit isgoingtogo i in thatdirection,andwherethechange wilI takepIace.
Remember theseFibonaccinumbers whenyoumakeaninitial trade,especiallywith options. If there is areversalatoneof thesenumberperiodsin themarket,asthingsin themarketafenotrandom, thereisevidence thatcyclesexist.
If thepatternsshowusthatthereis areversalin trend,wehavehighreliability thatthesereversals in trendwill persist,beingcyclical in nature,in thenewdirectionfar asetnumberof hours. In normal movements, Fibonaccihoursrunto 8, 13,21mostof thetime. Wecouldcalmlysitbackandsay,"wait aminute,thismovement will probablylast8or 13tradinghoursataminimum. A 13hourmovementwilliast 2full daysbeforeweevenbaveto think aboutselling. Tbeonly reasonwewantto closeoutouroption,afterwebaveawinningtrade,is thattheprobabilitiesafegoingagainstusor webavebeenstopped outthroughcoldharddiscipline.
Tbereafemany timeswewill bewhipped-sawed andwewill bestopped outeventhoughweaferight, butwestili mustmaintainthedisciplineandstopourselves outif theoptiongoesmuchagainstuso If thehourlychartturnsdownagainandwetry tobuyalow andit violatesthatlow, weafeprobably wrongandadowntrendis continuing. Wemustwatchourentryandexistpoints,far ourbiggestrisk will alwaysbeclearlydefinedbutalsobefar averyshorttimeperiodo Weneedonly to watchthemarketfar anhouror two if webavedoneourhomework,andduringthat houror two, weafemostvulnerableandwemustkeepourcloseststoplasso After that,it shouldbe veryobviousthatweaferight or wrongwith thetrade.
I Anothergoodrule thatI use,is thatafterwebavedoneourhomework,takenourpositionandafe! Sometimes, if youcarryanoptionfar morethan5 or 6 tradinghours,thereisno needto carryit. Youshouldcloseit out,scratchthetradeatasmallprofit or asmalliossandreduce your risk. Weafeinvestingwith thetrendandif thereis notrend,why risk ourmoney,why takeonrisk? Theprofessional traderis totalIyrisk adverse. This is whatprofessional tradingisalI about.
The Geometric Phase of Stock Trading
Not guessing, nothoping,notreadingthenewspaper, notbelievingin ourcompany, butlookingatthetechnicalpatterns of ourcharts. After havingdone thetimecount,havingmeasured thewaves,havingsomeanglescomeuptram thebottomfar support or anglescomedowntram thetopfar resistance, or havingdoneapercentage retracement or a proportionate advance of animpulsewave,thenyoucanmakeacold,hard,mechanical entrypoint. Webavemany,manytoolsin ourarsenal now,toclearlydefinesupportandresistance in timecycles turns.
Weshouldnowstepupandmakeacommitmentwith astoplasso Oncewebavemadethat commitmentwith astoploss,thetradebecomes very,very,easy. It wouldtakeseveral booksjusttobegintorevealsuch proportions. A proportionis simplythedivisionof thewholeinto itsrespective parts. This is onestartingpoint. Anotherstartingpoint is to divide by 3. Thenaturalsequence 1 derivesfromthissimpledividing by2and3.
Stockpriceswill gravitatetowardsthesepercentagesof theirprior highestor lowestpriceandwill find supportor meetresistance there. This is tmeof bothtimeandprice i. In the division of a squarealong the diagonal, the diagonal or 45 degreeangleevenly divides the squareinto two equal halves. Our sell stoppoint should beplacedjust under that point assuringa profit on the trade. The market averagesasa whole alsoreflect proportionate movements,andmost of thehighs andlows of history have beennearexactproportions of prior highs and lows in the pastoWe haveali noticed the fact that most stocksmeetstrongresistancewhen they double or meettheonehundredpercentproportion.
Since theseproportions relate to time aswell asprice we can theorize about basiccycle origins. Whether they be 50 days, 50 weeks, 50 months, etc. In terrnsof days, we would witnesscyclical behavior at interva1sof 50, , , , , etc. The day to day fluctuations in the market afe nothing more than theseinterre1atingcycle proportions of pasthigh and lows coming auto Large movementsoccur when numerousharrnonicsof pasthighs and lows afe nearthe samedate.
It is important to note that this theory implies connection betweenprice and time. In this way, time and price work out in independentproportions. Since this is a natural phenomenawe can usethe mathematicsof physics to measureforces and vectors on stock price graphs. More interesting, however, from a philosophical point of view, is the interrelationship to the mathematicsof stock prices andthe harmonic mathematicalstmcture of music.
Rhythms in music, pleasing to the ear,show up in stock price patternsthat afe pleasing to the eye. In music, a halving of the length of a string doubles the frequency and in mathematical terrnsthis interplay betweenaddition and multiplication takesforrn in the logarithmic function. A useful mathematical relationship of stockprices andnature,relating to this interplay between addition andmultiplication, is the Fibonacci sequence. As mentionedpreviously, this sequenceis an additive sequence,where eachnumber in the seriesis addedto its neighbor to get the next number in the series.
More important than the absolutenumber valuesthemselves,however, is their relationship to every other number in the series. MostmarketsandindividuaIstockswill beobserved to regio andendtheirmovements attheseratios. Thistopicisof theutmostimportance, butasimplework suchasthiscannotgiveit justice. AgainI will haveto leavethisexplorationtothoseof youwhowishto masterthesesecrets asopposed to the vastmajorityofcasualreaders seechapter8onImpulseWaves. Whatthishastodo with harmonyandproportionin themarket,isthatwesimplytakeourhourlychartandapplythese proportionalratios.
Forinstance, if themarkettopsatapriceof we wouldlook far pricesupportandresistance at plusor minus,,etc. Wewouldalsowatch far hourlytimecountsatthesetimeperiodsfromthehighor low hour. Additionally,if twotopsoccurredhoursapart,wewouldlook far thenexttopin sequence x 1. SeeFigure 8 Whatweafereallydealingwith, in discussing harmonyandproportionin thestockmarket,wouldbe betterclassifiedas"Progressions," sincewewantto predictthenexttimeor priceeventin aseries.
Thiswouldbeasfoundin normalset cyclelengthslike ,,hours,days,weeksetc. Herewehaveasetconstant ratiobetween adjacent terms. Thesethreeprogressions giveusali themathematics wewill everneedto measure cyclesin the market. NotethattheFibonacciratioor seriesisbothArithmetic,aseachnumberaddstogetthenext,. Oncewehavetheprogression keywewill beableto accurately forecastfar longperiodsiutathe future. Countbackwards from Augustby years1,3,5,8, 13,etc. Themorecommontechnique onhourlychartsistosimplyuseapremarked tapemeasure with alIthe importantratiohoursin progression andjust movethistapebackwards andforwardsoveryourcharts, until yougetamatchof multiplehighsandlowscoincidingwith thetapetick marks.
Thensimply completetheseriesonyourchartfor anydesirable timeperiodintothefuture. Onefinal hint beforeleavingproportion. Sincethesepatterns onourchartsafeharmonicandproportional,wecanusewhatarchitects usetokeeptrackof symmetry-- reKulatinKlines. Theseafemerely linesthatgofrom toptobottomof ourchart,atpresetangles,thatreflecttheproportionweafedealing i with. TheseanalescanbeGeometric,Fibonacci,or Esoteric. Chapter 7 Thading Basics "We wantto investonly on a rising tide,not high tideor a decliningtideor evenlow tide. Obviously,thefirst three afeprerequisites far asystemof determiningthemain trend,whichisourobjective.
Theconceptof themaintrendwastoucheduponin theprior sectionof thetideanalogy, whichrelates eachrising waveatthebeachtoeach higherpricethatastocktradesduringeachttswing"periodo I usethetermttswing"tomarkeachbeginningandendof apricemovement. Forexample,astockthatstartsat lOandgoesto 20andthen15andthen18wouldhavethefirst swinglow of lO,first swingtopat20,with anotherswinglow at 15,etc.
In trading,wewishto identify thepointof eachswingfar ourentryandexitpointfar eachtrade,aswell asdetermining probabledurationfar eachswingandestimate thetimeperiodandpricemovement soastoavoid minorandinconsequential movements thatsimplyincrease ourtradingcosts. Cyclicalanalysispresumes thathistoryrepeats andstocksbehave in thefuturemuchlike theydid in thepasto Wemustthereforebecome amarkethistorian,anexpertin thepasthistoryof aparticular stockwewishto trade.
Toparaphrase ODe of my favoritequotesfrom theBible: "The thing that hath been,it is that which shall be,. Justasthepersonalityof amovieactress is differentfromthepersonality of achemicalengineer, soisthetradingpersonalityof IBM quitedifferentfromthetrading personality of GeneraiMotors. Thedifferences afemuchgreaterthenthemerefactthatthese two groupsdiffer in theirresponse todifferenteconomicfundamentals. Whenyoulookatthegrouppatterns of ali stocks,i.
Somemake a rounded bottom trading at nearthe samelow price for severaldaysto weeksbefore inching up, while others spike down on one low day reversing anddramatically advance. The trading personality alsohasatiming rhythm that is peculiar. Someissuesmove in straight line movementslasting monthswithout reversing,while othersexhibit sudden,dramatic, up anddown reversalsalmost weekly.
Although much could be said,suffice it to say,you mustcomplete athorough analysisof a stock'shistory before investing. If our trading method is to be of practical worth we must be overly concernedwith losses. In the stock market anyonecanmake money,it's easy. In fact the only thing easieris to losemoney. One of my favorite sayings is, IIThe quickest way to make a small fortune in the stock market is to start with a large one.
In this pastcentury, psychiatrists havebecomewealthy describing personswho afemasochistic, wanting to hurt themselves,egocentric, who afe alwaysright, no matter what the circumstanceor suffering fromgrandiose delusions aboutthenatureof reality. In the stockmarket the only truth is price. If you buy something andit goesdown you afe wrong, it doesnot matter how smart,wise or powerful youare I : Successfultradersare people who recognize when they are wrong and are noi inhibited by psychological factors in doing somethingaboutbeing wrong. The goodtrader andtechnician usesobjective measures,to quantify the degreeof error.
He is willing to assumerisk andthen live by predefined rules. This is known asa "stop lossdiscipline. I Theserules work becausestocksthat afe truly in anuptrend rarely go down much or rarely go sideI ways for too long alime period before resuming theuptrendby making anew high. Rememberthe analogy of the tide Most of the lime this occursbecauseof oneof two personality defects: The First Personalitv Defect - the positive thinking executive type who believes in the force of bis will and that bis analysis will ultimately be righi.
He will hold on for months and years becausehe is righi. Thesepeople point out that many of today's fabulous, wealthy investors got their moneyjust through suchabuy andhold strategy. Having investeda small amountthirty yearsagoandneverhaving soldo Although it is quite true, statistics afe deceiving. Unfortunately, books written aboutthesenot sofamous people don't selI very welI. You do not have to believe that your stock wilI go up if you afe a technician, you seeit. Every stock that becameabig winner in the market should havebeenpurchasedby technicians,sinceby definition, it wasmaking patternsof higher highs andhigher lows.
If onehasthe attitude that acertain stock will go up indefinitely, there is no harm in trading it when using technical analysistools. Sinceone would always buy it back when it madeahigher high or would havebought it back when it madeaminor higher low. Often times, a long term winner wilI consolidate far months or evenyearswithout going up or down andthereby tie up valuable capital that could be earning areturn elsewhere. The Second Personalitv Defect - is the person who doesali the ground work conscientiously and then buys a stock only to see it go down.
In this caseit is hard to admit being wrong becauseit seemspsychologicalIy unfair sincealI that work wasdone. It is easyto rationalize a decision of "let's wait and see,perhapsl'm not wrong, just early! The reality of Watt Streetis price. Becauseof the reality of price, onecould merely flip acoin and buy on headsand selI on tails to enter a trade.
A good trader and successfulspeculatorknows what to do after he is in the trade. If the trend goesagainsthim, he merely doublesup andgoesin the oppogitedirection. Sincethe main trend tendsto persistaver time, sucha simple coin flipping methodology will work if one's stop loss discipline is vigorously folIowed. If the stockruns up many points aver severalweeks,a rising gelI stoppoint just under eachswing low wilI! Hence,the old saying, "Cut your lossesand lei your profits ; run. What you try and not develop afe preconceivedideasabouthow much money you wilI make.
Otherwise,onceor twice in a lifetime big winners wilI always get away becausethe investor grabsaquick I ODestandard psychological excuse far avoidingtechnicalanalysis andutilizing buyandholdlong termstrategy, is theold fearof payingtaxesonshorttermgains. However,its biggestadvantage, I believe,isapsychological Due. Theannua l payingof taxesoncapitalgainsforces ODe tobeliquid andnotgettrappedintoholdingastockwhichisobviouslygoingdown,justbe.
If theyhadpaidtaxesannuallytheywouldprobablybebetteroff. A tradingphilosophyallowsODe tobebetterprepared psychologicallyfar opportunities in themarket. Mostpeopleknowthatcompounding ratesof retumcanadduptosubstantial amounts of moneyaver timeandrecentadvertisements far IRA andKEOHretirementaccounts demonstrate thisverywell. However,manypeopleafecompletelyunaware of thetruly speculative retumsavailablethrough compounding. My pointis simplythis,aspeculative tradingstrategy combinedwith avigorousstoplossdiscipline canyield phenomenal results.
Thereasonoptionsappealto alI of usis thatalmosteveryonewhohaseverboughtthemhasatODe timeor anotherdoubledor tripledhismoney. Professionals tradeentirelywith this lossfearasthefoundationof theiroperations. Wemustdevelopamethodto stoplosses or limit ourrisk withoutundulyincreasing ourtradingcosts I or frequencyof tumoverin commissions.
Mosttradersbuyaprior swinglow usingthoselowsasastop,or buywhenthestockpullsbackto atrendlineandpIaceasellstopunder thattrendline. It isnotglamorous orparticularlyhard,buttheobjectivehereismoneyandrisk mani Remember,we afe not trading far fun andprofit, just profit! As is often saidon Wall Street, iihappiness cannot buy money. Determining thosecyclic time periods is a function of the historical analysis of the chart, noting theprobability of pasttime cycle patternsandtrading off of them. By the end of this book you should be able to find a good combination of stop lossand gelIpoints basedon trendlines, swing points and cycle turns, but for now we must concentrateon thebasic trendlines.
As I mentioned previously, for a stock to show an uptrend, it must make a seriesof higher highs and higher lows. This is not always readily apparentfrom acasualglance at achart. Most people therefore, draw trendlines. Trendlines afe simply lines that connecteachrising successivelow point to show uptrend andconnect eachdeclining top point to indicate adeclining trend. Here again,the investment time horizon is of paramountimportance. Trendlines connecting eachdaily price will bemuch steeperthan trendlines connecting weekly or monthly points and alsowill beviolated much more frequently.
Trendlines afe very useful tools in battling the tradersworst enemy,his psychological propensity to becomeinvolved in a trade in an emotional way, thereby becoming biasedasto the stockstrend. Trendlines keep ODe honest. If the trendline is broken, sois the trend. The reality of price saysthat when thetrend changesyou willlose moneyunlessyou go with thenew trend. Trendlines afe really a form of moving average. The slopeof the trendline showsthe rate of change,of price over time.
The steeperthe slopethe greaterthe change. Trendlines can alsobeconsideredgood psychological measuresof emotional sentimentby themasses. Stocksthat afe in favor exhibit steeperandlonger uninterrupted trendlines thanthoselesspopolar issues. The rateof changein public acceptancecanusually be measuredalong a seriesof ever increasing trendlines, starting with the steepweekly trend, which in turo becomesa steepermonthly trendline, andfinally a steeperyearly change.
As the accumulation processtakespIace,an investor examining the continuous chart over severalyears,will seea graduaI,but ever increasingrate of changein the trendline slopeup until the moment of thefiDaItop. I ,jj Thelongterrnchart's rateof change takes thevisualforrnof acurverather thanastraight line,and , thiscurvecanbeplottedmathematically tohelppredictthefinal pointof emotionalexhaustion, with thestartof thebeginningof thedistributionandthedecliningphase.
I mightadd, the stody of circolar arcsis a sciencein itself and ODe I woold recommendto everyone.
The Greatest Trading Books Ever Written - By
I donot havetimein thissimpleworkto discussthetheoreticalramificationsof arcsbut,sufficeit to say,theylie atthe heartof my personal proprietarymethods. ArcsafetheONLY form of trendlinethatwill conclusively showyou wheretopswill appear. Theendof ali Bull Marketsoccurattheresolutionof longterrn parabolicarcs.
SeeFigure 9 Themostimportantuseandapplicationof trendlinesisthroughgeometric chartingorusinggeometric I anglesfar trendlines. Thisbasicslopeequates oneunit of pricewith one unit of time. Asfrom ourschooldays,slopeisequalto "over! A divisionof asquare givesus , anotherslopehalf asgreatasthefirst. This wouldbeaver2 i' unitsandup 1unit, or a 1by 2 angle. Similarly a 1by 3anglewouldbeaverthreetimeperiods, up 1unit of price. Theseafenaturalslopesandmoststockstendto follow oneor ali of these division slopesatdifferenttimes. Tofind aunique,naturalslopefar yourparticularstockwesimply applythesameprincipalof fractionaldivision.
FirstweconnectthetrendIineby drawingastraightlinebetween consecutive Iows far anuptrendexample. Notewherethenaturaltrendlineintersects aparticularpricelevelatthefirst "tick" mark. Wenowmerelydrawslopeanglesfrom theoriginallow pricethrougheachof our pricedots. Theseslopeswill giveusnaturalI by 2, 1by 3, 1by 4, l by 5,etc.
Oncewehavetrendlineswecanuseawonderfulrulethatishighly reliableand valuablefor tradingpurposes if believedin andalwaysfollowed. Thisrulecanbesimplystatedas follows: "A stock'sprice will follow ageometricaltrendline Bugieandwhen it breaksit canneverregainthat specificBugieandmusi fall or will noi advanceuntil it touchesthegeometricalfreDdURe belowit" It is veryimportantto knowthatsinceweafedealingwith trendlinesor slopes, weafenot sayingthe pricemustfatI if thetrendlineisviolated. Weafetalkingaboutratesof change.
It isusuallythecase however,thatwhenatrendlinebreaksanewdirectionis indicated. This isvaluableinformationandwemaywantto investourmoneyelsewhere while weafewaiting for thestocktoconsolidate ordeclineto find supporto Moreimportantly,wewouldcertainlynotwant to owncali optionsonthatstock,butwemayconsiderwriting nakedcallsor coveredcallsatthat point.
Likewise,in usingsuchanalysisin tradingtheoverallmarket,therecomesatimejust afteratopis reached andatrendlineisbroken,thatthemarketcannotgohigherbutit maynotgolowerimmediately. At thesetimesaprofessional traderisjust wastinghisor hertimein trying to tradestocks. For me,theseafevacationperiodsor longweekends orE. Whenusingtheserulesandtrendlines youmustalwaysremember thatthese slopes of advance in pricesor declinesafereflectionsof masspsychology. In themasses asawhole,greedandfearmanitestin thebuyingandsellingof stocksandlike anyphysicalphenomena, wavesof bullishorbearish sentiment will follow anaturalcoursetill exhaustion develops andarrests thetrend.
Since successin the market andtrading is dependenton getting arateof retum over time, the trendline slopedefines this rate of retum, i. The steepesttrendlines afe the onesthat interest uso Stocksthat afe the most popolar will always have steepertrendline ratesof retum. Pleaseremember, that when I usethe word popolar, I amreferring to the action of much more buying than selling. In pluralistic democracy,the mIe is oneman, one vote. In pluralistic capitalism, asin the stock market, it. This is why thereafe few very successfulinvestorsandmany unsuccessfullosers. Now that we have a better appreciation for the value of trendlines to gaugethe direction of the trend and its momentum, we now needto addressthequestionof time.
Although trendlines may break,we havenoticed that this doesnot meanthat the price will fall asthe upward rateof momentum is slowing. In order to show a changein trend, we must now seesuccessivelylower lows and lower highs in order for the trend to havechangedfrom upward to downwards. The first thing we must do is keepagraspon the big picture, the long term trend.
A violation of adaily trendline, or aweekly trendline, doesnot necessarilymeanthat the longer trend, the monthly trend is down. Perhapswe have entereda consolidation period or sidewaystrading range. To seeif the longer term picture is deteriorating, we neednot resort to dozensof charts,but merely note the last major swing low on the longer term chart. Por this purposeit would beconvenient to maintain a log book of thehighestprice for the month andthe lowest price for the month. As long asthe decline doesnot go lower thanthe low reachedin the prior month, the trend cannotbe down sinceany line drawn betweenthe prior month's low andthis month's higher low would still be an upward slope.
A price decline to the sameprice level would show a horizontal slope. We usually refer to thesetypes of lows, asdouble bottoms or triple bottoms in the caseof adecline, rally and anotherdecline into the sameprice area. The generaitrading mIe which is quite reliable, is to bo : at dooble and triple bottoms, but to watch for abreakdown on any testof thoselows after that 4th bottom or more.
In the stock market this changein tidal direction of buying and selling may take a long period of time to complete, sayseveralweeksor months, retore decisively reversing. So a strategically placed purchaseor sale,at a prior swing price, will almost always result in immediate gain asthe stock or market reversesto test again its prior direction. At thispoint thetradeis questionable, asthetraderdoesnotknowif thebounceoff of theprior price level,is thebeginningof aneventualbreakdown tonewlowsor merelyonly thetestof amajor supportareaprior to amuchbiggeradvance.
Chapter6 onProportionandHarmonydealswith possiblemethods to resolvethisissue. Weshouldmentionafew morewordsonsupportandresistance areas. Theseafeasfollows: -Suggort areaisanareawhichhashorizontallystopped manypreviousdeclinesandresultedin subsequent priceadvances. Thesehistoricaltimeandpriceperiodscanbeanywhere tram thepastfew weeks,or to old highsor lowsmadeatthosepricelevelsyearsago. Justlike thetideanalogyof smallwaveswithin biggerones, Urneis arunction or theindividuals oerceoUon. A longtermrisingtrend,i.
Sowemightseeanexampleof aminordeclineonamonthlybasisto acertainprice level,abounceoff thatlevel,giving riseto athreeor four weekrally, anotherfailuretotestthatlevel, thena3 yearadvance to newhighsandthenyearslater,aoneor two yeardecline,alIthewaybackto theoriginallevels. Thensupportlevelsformdouble,tripleor multiplebottomsonvariouscharts. In ourhistoricalanalysisof astock,beforetradingit, weshouldcarefullynoteali thesesupportand resistance areas. Fromarationalperspective, far thoseof youwhoneedto grasplogicaltruthsbefore youinvest,supportandresistance levelsafepsychological buyandsellpointsthatlastfar long periodsof timeandtheyusuallyform atphysiological,emotionaltimesin themarket.
Longterminvestorsalwaysremember wheretheyboughtor soldtheirpositionsandwhattheircost basiswas. Sowhenastockfinally returnsto thosesamelevelsafterlongtimeperiods,thosesame investorseitheraddto theirpositionsoreliminatethem. In ourtheoryof timesquares, youwill find thesesupportandresistance areas attimeandpriceproportionalpoints. Wecanthenseehowbigor importantthesquareis,andthereby,getafeelfar whetherthepivot pointwill holdor howaconsolidationshouldtake.
Thisanalogylikensthewavesatthebeach or thewavesof soundstrikingtheear,or the wavesof light strikingtheeyetothepricelevelsin themarket. Manyof theknownlawsof physicsand mathematics thatweusetoidentifywavesin thephysicalworld,applytomeasuring movements of emotionalwavesin thestockmarket. Thefirst pIaceto startis atthebeginningof thewave. Theseinitial thrustsafecalledimpulsewaves thatoccurattheendof theprior movement andthestartof anewtrend. Thisideaof animpulsewave, asa start of atrend, is alsohelpful in identifying the main trend when the price pattem is choppy.
Forinstance, anewBull Marketstartsattheendof aBearMarketwhenthemarketstopsgoingdown andit getsdull andquieto Theredoesnotseem tobeanyactivityandthensuddenlyanimpulsewave hitsandthemarketgoesupdramatically. Thiscanbeacoupleof daysto severalweekslaterandmayamountto afewpointsonanindividuaIstock,whereas, ontheDow Jones Averages it mayamountto severai hundred pointsof anadvance beforethefirst significant correctionsetsin.
I Whatwewanttodoismake measurements ofthetimedurationofthisimpulse waveandtheprice distanceit travelsduringthattime,togetanideaastothestrengthandprobabletimeperiodtoexhaustion ofthismove. Todothis,wemust define aseries ofexpanding number cycIes andapplythem totheinitial magnitude of theimpulsewave. Keepin mindtheanalogyof ourmaintrendwhichconsists of aseriesof stairstephigherhighsand higherbottoms.
Eachof these littlestairsteps isatypeof impulse waveandeach aferelated to the very firstimpulse ofthewhoIe movement. It hasbeenshown historically that thereafe expansionmultiples of exact proportions of the initial impulsewave thatcalculateeachof thesubsequent waves. Forinstance, if thefirst wavemeasured dow points we could say that this wasunit l. If we apply thesefractional proportions to the initial wave it will give us someguesstimateasto its probable time duration andprice level.
After eachimpulse acorrection follows. The correction retracesa percentageof that initial impulse advance,but the correction is not usually percentof the advance,otherwise, we would not have one of thesestair steppatterns. So after an initial impulse wave a 45 degreediagonalline coming up off the initiallow would provide mq;or support any time the corrective wave carnedown and touched it. Thereafeanumberof waysof calculatingthecorrectionpercentage aftertheinitial impulsewave. We can useour standardmathematical anglesof 30 degrees,45 degreesor 60 degrees. Eachof thesemay be lessor more steepthan the other,but eachof theseprovide good support for acorrection.
When we seethe correction "losing momentum" or "running out 01velocity," at one of theseprice levels, we canassumethat the movement isjust aboutfinished andthat our next impulse wave is aboutto begin. This next impulse wave will be proportionately related to the first one. Now, thereafe many other waysof looking at impulse wavesandmeasuringthem.
Most of theseafe called Pattern Recognition Systems andafe the most accurateways of forecasting stock price movements. Here the market is seenasa seriesof wavesin units of 3, 5 and 8. The primary trend consistsof 5 wavesup with a counter trend of 3 wavesdown. If you have 5 waves up, the count would be 3 impulse wavesand 2 corrective waves.
So the first impulsewouldbe l, thecorrectivewave downwouldbe2 andanotherbiggerimpulsewave3 with a correctivewave 4 andthenabig finishingimpulsewavelabeled5. This 5 wavesequence isreally only 3 impulses up and 2 that afe corrective waves. After that sequenceis complete, a major down trend ensueswhich consistsof 5 wavesdown.
An initial thrust down, acounter rally back, anotherbig thrust down, acounter rally back andthenafinal thrust down. You would have3 thrustsdown and 21ittle counter wavesthat would complete thedown wave. Thereafemanyotherwavepatternsystems thatI find to bemorereliable. Someof thesepatterns insteadof consistingof 3,5 and8 waves,consistof 7 or 12waves,or evenequalproportionsof 2 and2. Using this pure Geometry Method, I quickly took out a 6 figure profit from the Singapore stock market in less than 6 months. I was fixated only on how much money I was going to make and lost any perspective that any method had its weaknesses and in the stockmarkets, this ignorance quickly turned into a nightmare for me.
My mind was going into overdrive; if I could make a couple of hundered thousand in less than 6 months with my limited capital, then surely I could make my millions in lesser time since now I had more capital to plunge into the markets. I did not know that emotionally I was now in Impulsive or Compulsive mode. What happened to me next was to keep me in debt for nearly 7 years. Using my Geometry method, I plunged into the stock markets and started losing money as the method started to breakdown.
Up till now I never heard nor knew about Money or Risk Management and did not use any stop losses. Remember my Mind was already impulsive and crazed and instead of playing smaller after each losing trade, I instead played bigger using more and more leverage hoping to make back my losses. I was shorting 30 to 50 contracts and finally blew up my capital and ended up with a devastating loss which was to take me 7 years to clear.
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